These 4 States May Determine Our Next President — Other Traditional Toss-Ups Don’t Swing Like They Used To

Virginia Chamlee

Wed, 23 November 2022 at 9:51 pm

People gather at a Republican midterm election night party at Red Rock Casino on November 08, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Former Attorney General of Nevada and Nevada Republican U.S. Senate nominee Adam Laxalt is in a tight race in his campaign to unseat incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).
People gather at a Republican midterm election night party at Red Rock Casino on November 08, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Former Attorney General of Nevada and Nevada Republican U.S. Senate nominee Adam Laxalt is in a tight race in his campaign to unseat incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).

Mario Tama/Getty

The 2024 presidential race could hinge on election results in just four key swing states: Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona — the same four states whose midterm Senate races were the final results to be called earlier this month.

As CNN reports, “the list of genuinely competitive presidential states may be shrinking.” Those four states, however, remain competitive and are divided almost evenly in terms of Republicans and Democrats — proving that whichever way they fall could determine leadership for the entire country.

While several other states have historically been referred to as swing states, in recent years, they’ve seen power more firmly held by either Republicans or Democrats.

Florida, for instance, was long considered a swing state. But earlier this month, the state saw Republican candidates sweep House, gubernatorial and Senate races in the midterm elections. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, for instance, beat his Democratic rival Charlie Crist by a wide margin of nearly 20 points.

In Texas, Democrats had hoped to flip the state blue — a dream that failed in both 2020 and 2022, a signifier that the state is likely to remain a Republican stronghold for the foreseeable future.

Earlier this month, the results in Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona determined which party would control the U.S. Senate, a victory that ultimately went to Democrats even as Republicans had earlier been favored to win by many polls.

In 2020, it was five states — Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — who helped determine the 2020 presidential race when they flipped from red to blue by voting for Joe Biden.

Since then, Democrats have gained momentum in some areas, and experts say they could gain further support still, depending on who Republicans nominate as their 2024 candidate.

Already, former President Donald Trump has announced his 2024 campaign, a run that will come amid investigations into his conduct on Jan. 6, 2021 — when a mob of rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol on his behalf in an attempt to stop Joe Biden‘s election victory from being certified — and his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

The former president has stayed tapped into politics since leaving office, hitting the midterm campaign trail alongside several controversial Republican candidates this year.

But many of the candidates Trump endorsed lost their races, leading some experts to wonder whether his popularity was slipping, even among members of his own party.

Republicans’ lackluster performance on Nov. 8 — and voters’ clear hesitance to support Trump-backed candidates — led members of his own party to request he sit the 2024 election out, or at least wait to make an announcement until after Georgia’s Senate runoff is called in December.

Jason Cabel Roe, the former executive director of the Michigan GOP, told CNN that Trump’s nomination could prove fatal to the party’s chances, as evidenced by the midterms.

“If the Republican Party’s focus in the future is going to be enforcing loyalty to Donald Trump … then we’re done,” he told the outlet.

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